NBA mock draft 2023: Latest projection with perfect picks for every selection

There are a few things we know for sure about the 2023 NBA Draft. Victor Wembanyama is going No. 1 overall to the San Antonio Spurs. The New Orleans Pelicans want G League Ignite point guard Scoot Henderson, but they would have to trade into the top-three to get him. Damian Lillard would probably like the Portland Trail Blazers to trade their No. 3 overall pick for a veteran star, but the front office can’t make a shortsighted deal when it has a chance to add a premier young talent.

With draft day finally arriving on Thursday, it’s time for another mock draft. We tried something different for this one: every pick is what I would do with the selection, not necessarily what I think will happen.

We’ve been doing mock drafts this class since the day after the 2022 draft. Keep it locked to SB Nation this week for a big board, draft grades, a 2024 mock draft, a feature on the Thompson twins, and more coverage. Here’s our latest first round mock, based on a combination of my own board and team fit.

1. San Antonio Spurs - Victor Wembanyama, C, Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92

One of the best prospects in NBA history, full stop. The Spurs feel like a perfect landing spot for Wembanyama: he’ll be able to test the limits of his game with no immediate pressure to win on a team already loaded with perfectly-fit complementary pieces like Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Keldon Johnson. The 7’5 super prospect should be a monster at the rim on both ends of the floor from the minute he enters the league, but he’s also going to get every opportunity to make plays all over the floor. The Spurs’ dynasty has been dormant for the last few years, but it will be back before you know it.

2. Charlotte Hornets - Scoot Henderson, PG, G League Ignite

Henderson isn’t an ideal fit on a team that already has LaMelo Ball installed at point guard, but he’s still the no-brainer pick at No. 2 overall. It’s possible the fit with Ball will push both players to be better in the long-term: Henderson will need to become more of an off-ball threat starting with improving his spot-up jumper, and Ball will be forced to stay engaged defensively with a small guard next to him. It’s fair to argue that Brandon Miller is a better fit at this spot, but Charlotte might have the least talented roster in the league and is in no position to pass on the best player. The only way I’d consider not taking Henderson as Charlotte is if Zion Williamson is available for a trade. Moving this pick for Williamson would be incredibly risky, but the upside of the Zion-LaMelo pairing is just too enticing to pass up.

3. Portland Trail Blazers - Amen Thompson, G, Overtime Elite City Reapers

There’s so much trade speculation at this spot as Portland tries to satisfy Damian Lillard’s desires to win now, but the offers might not come pouring in until Charlotte makes their decision at No. 2. That puts the Blazers in an especially tough spot to make a deal. For the record, I’d trade this pick for the right veteran star because Portland can always recoup draft compensation if it eventually decides to trade Lillard. If the Blazers do make this pick, I’d favor Amen Thompson over Miller and Cam Whitmore because his historically impressive athletic package gives him sky-high upside as a lead creator. Thompson’s jump shot will need to be completely reworked and his defensive technique has to be fine-tuned, but his combination of size (6’7 with a 7-foot wingspan), playmaking, and athletic tools are so special that he’s worth the risk.

4. Houston Rockets - Brandon Miller, F, Alabama

Amen Thompson and Henderson would be the best possible fits for Houston, but they aren’t on the board. Drafting Miller would give Houston another big shooter on the wing, and it feels like he’d have less pressure to develop into a primary scoring option with Jalen Green around. If this happens, it would potentially set up Houston nicely to sign a veteran point guard in free agency. I hear a certain former Rockets guard might be interested in coming home.

5. Detroit Pistons - Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova

This would be one of my favorite fits in the draft. Whitmore would give Detroit another monster athlete on the wing next to Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey. He’d help space the floor with Duren and Ivey with solid three-point shooting ability. He’d also benefit from attacking defenses tilted by Cade Cunningham’s creation. Jarace Walker and Ausar Thompson will get looks here too, but I’m not sure if Detroit can afford another non-shooter in its core. I’d give real consideration to Taylor Hendricks in this spot, too, but Whitmore feels like the best choice possible.

6. Orlando Magic - Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite Reapers

Yes, Orlando’s biggest need is shooting, and Thompson isn’t going to help them in that department even if he’s more developed in that area than his twin. The Magic do have another lottery pick where they might be able to address that need. Orlando could also use a dose of athleticism to complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and that’s where Thompson comes in. I like the idea of him playing a havoc role on both ends by swooping into the passing lanes, thriving in transition, and hammering home dunks on cuts and lobs.

7. Indiana Pacers - Jarace Walker, F, Houston

Love this fit. Indiana feels like the best possible place for Walker to reach his potential, while also filling the team’s biggest need. Walker is a defensive monster at the four who’s current limitations as a shooter should be mitigated while paired with knockdown threats Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, and Myles Turner. The extra spacing should allow Walker to tap into the creation ability he showed more frequently at the high school level. Walker should be ready to go defensively from day one, and adding a player with both wing stopper and rim protection skills would go a long way to fixing last season’s No. 26 defense.

8. Washington Wizards - Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF

Washington can’t be drafting for fit here, not with a new front office that just traded Bradley Beal as Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma enter free agency. Hendricks feels like the best player available here even if his upside is more as a super role player than a star. At 6’10 with a 7’2 wingspan, Hendricks is an excellent rim protection prospect on defense while being a good three-point shooter and athletic dunker inside. He doesn’t have much of a bag offensively if he’s not taking spot-ups, but having a three-point shooting/shot-blocking four just opens up so many team-building avenues for a roster that should be set for a massive rebuild.

9. Utah Jazz - Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky

Utah would be a great spot for a Thompson twin, and I’d also like the fit with Hendricks. With all three off the board, Wallace is the next best choice. The Celtics once kickstarted their rebuild by drafting Marcus Smart before they ever had Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and I think Wallace could provide similar value. He’s an awesome defensive guard who plays bigger than his size, and he has a complementary skill set on offense as a connective passer and spot-up shooter. I’m less high on Wallace’s ability to be a full-time lead guard, but he provides the things winning teams need while playing with an immense physical edge that will pay off as the Jazz reload the roster long-term.

10. Dallas Mavericks - Anthony Black, G, Arkansas

Black is another A+ fit in this mock, and the Mavericks should be doing backflips if he’s available at No. 10. The Mavs need connective pieces around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving if the latter is re-signed, and Black can be exactly that. He’s a big, strong guard with a winning mentality who can keep the ball moving on the perimeter while capably defending a wide spectrum of offensive players. Black lacks some dynamism as an on-ball creator, but that’s not a concern on a Doncic team. If he improves his spot-up jumper, he’s everything Dallas needs on the perimeter.

11. Orlando Magic - Gradey Dick, G/F, Kansas

Arguably the best shooter in the class going to a team that badly needs shooting. Another A+ fit!

12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jett Howard, F, Michigan

This is the toughest pick in the draft so far. I’m higher on Howard than most because he’s one of the best shooters in the class and also offers some unique creation upside for a 6’8 forward. Chet Holmgren and the rest of OKC’s long-armed defenders could do a great job insulating his defensive shortcomings, too. Howard really doesn’t seem like a Thunder pick at all — they prefer super long, high-IQ players — but his shooting and all-around offensive punch makes him a pretty enticing fit here.

13. Toronto Raptors - Dariq Whitehead, G, Duke

This is another tough call, but I like both the fit and upside of Whitehead in Toronto long-term. Whitehead was supposed to offer creation upside as an athletic 6’5 guard when he came to Duke. Unfortunately, he got injured early in the season and never looked like himself as a rim attacker. Instead, Whitehead remade himself as a shooter — supposedly a weakness in his game entering college — and hit 42.4 percent from three. If his athleticism comes back, he could still be the all-around guard prospect he was always hyped as. This is more of a long-term pick as Whitehead is one of the youngest players in the draft, but given Toronto’s cloudy future, his skills could fit nicely into whatever the roster looks like when he’s fully formed.

14. New Orleans Pelicans - Brice Sensabaugh, G, Ohio State

The Pelicans want Scoot Henderson, and I think they have enough trade ammunition to get it done if they’re willing part with Zion Williamson. If New Orleans can’t pull off the trade, Sensabaugh makes sense here as a knockdown shooter who could space the floor for Williamson and Brandon Ingram.

15. Atlanta Hawks - Noah Clowney, F, Alabama

Clowney is young and raw, but if he hits he’ll provide an enticing mix of size, shooting, and rim protection. If Onyeka Okongwu is Atlanta’s center of the future (he should be), the Hawks will probably want to pair him with a bigger four who can space the floor. That’s a tough archtype to find, but Clowney has the potential to be exactly that down the line if his skill set comes together.

16. Utah Jazz - Keyonte George, G, Baylor

The Jazz reportedly like George, per Marc Stein, and that’s good enough for me. George lacks blow-by athleticism, but he’s a versatile shooter, audacious passer, and tough shot-maker. His ability to play on- or off-ball is a nice fit on a Jazz roster that is very much still in development.

17. Los Angeles Lakers - Kobe Bufkin, G, Michigan

Bufkin closed his sophomore season at Michigan on a tear to sky-rocket up draft boards over the last few months. It’s easy to see the appeal: he’s a tremendous finisher at the rim, a tough on-ball defender, and a good shooter. I worry a bit about his lack of elite physical tools, but it’s hard to deny that both his tape and statistical profile screams that he’s one of the most complete guards in the class.

18. Miami Heat - Bilal Coulibaly, F, Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92

Coulibaly is a pure upside pick after showing constant improvement playing alongside Victor Wembanyama on Mets 92. A 6’7 wing with a reported 7’2 wingspan, Coulibaly is an elite run-and-jump athlete with sky-high defensive upside. His jumper looks projectable, but he needs to figure out the rest of his offense. Miami feels like a great place for him to develop.

19. Golden State Warriors - Nick Smith Jr., G, Arkansas

It’s going to be hard for the Warriors to find a taker for Jordan Poole in an offseason trade, but if they can do it, Smith can replace a lot of his offensive value at a fraction of the price. Smith may have been a top-five pick if he elected to sit out the season after sustaining a knee injury, but he returned to the lineup for Arkansas despite not looking like the dynamic rim attacker he was supposed to be. There are serious questions about his lack of size and defense, but he’s a tremendous shooter and a walking bucket when he’s really got it going.

20. Houston Rockets - Brandin Podziemski, PG, Santa Clara

The Rockets need a steady hand at point guard more than anything else. After missing out on Amen Thompson at No. 4 in this mock, they find good value with Podziemski — the rare down-transfer (from Illinois to Santa Clara) to emerge as a first round pick. There’s enough offensive upside in his dribble-pass-shoot skill set to warrant this pick whether Houston intends to spend big on a free agent point guard or not.

21. Brooklyn Nets - Jalen Hood-Schifino, G, Indiana

The Nets have a ton of wing depth and an emerging young defensive center in Nic Claxton, but they need to add a young playmaker to the mix. While I’m lower on Hood-Schifino than some, his combination of size (6’6), pick-and-roll passing chops, and pull-up shooting potential makes him a worthy pick if he lasts this long.

22. Brooklyn Nets - GG Jackson, F, South Carolina

This is a pure upside pick. Jackson had a bizarre and uneven freshman season after reclassifying to skip his senior year of high school, but he still showed flashes of what originally made him a top recruit. He’s a huge wing scorer with shot creation potential, but his feel for the game is very much a work in progress. The Nets feel like a perfect spot for him to grow with two first round picks and a need for high-ceiling talent.

23. Portland Trail Blazers - Dereck Lively II, C, Duke

The Trail Blazers could really use a high-upside center prospect to develop behind Jusuf Nurkic, and Lively fits the mold. The top recruit had an underwhelming freshman season at Duke on the offensive end, but showcased elite rim protection skills by putting up one of the country’s best block rates. If Portland can tap into the shot-making skills he showcased in high school, they might really have something here.

24. Sacramento Kings - Maxwell Lewis, G/F, Pepperdine

Lewis is a long wing with shooting and shot-creation upside. His efficiency tailed off as the year went on, but his flashes of one-on-one scoring and spot-up shooting would be a nice fit on a dynamic Kings offense.

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Leonard Miller, F, G League Ignite

Miller never really developed as a shooter the way teams hoped, but he had a nice year in the G League regardless. He’s a big forward who can score inside and rebound while showing off a rare ability to put the ball on the floor and make a play for a player his size.

26. Indiana Pacers - Jordan Hawkins, G, UConn

Hawkins has a case as the best shooter in the draft. He’s so skilled at darting around screens on the perimeter to knock down threes. I worry he’s something of a one trick pony with defensive limitations and shot-creation questions, but every team in the league could use a movement shooter as skilled as he is.

27. Charlotte Hornets - Kris Murray, F, Iowa

Murray might a little less athletic and a little worse as a shooter than his twin brother Keegan, but there’s a big difference in drafting a guy at No. 4 overall vs. No. 27. I like Murray as a pretty safe bet to be a solid-if-unspectacular wing who can space the floor, hit shots, and defend his position.

28. Utah Jazz - Jaime Jaquez, F, UCLA

Jaquez was a four-year stud at UCLA who can pull off the difficult transition to a role player in the NBA. That starts with stretching out his knockdown mid-range shooting to the three-point line. His toughness, high-IQ, and shot-making just makes him feel like a Will Hardy type of player.

29. Indiana Pacers - Tristan Vukčević, C, Real Madrid

Vukčević barely played for Real Madrid as a 19-year-old this season, but he totally won me over at the combine with his combination of size and shooting. He looks like a deadly shooter who measured taller than 6’11. If there’s a better big shooter in this class, I haven’t seen him.

30. Los Angeles Clippers - Amari Bailey, G, UCLA

Physical guard who can defend two positions on the perimeter, handle the ball, and score attacking the rim. He feels like a solid bet to develop into an NBA role player to me as long as his confidence in his shot keeps improving.